Snapshot at block #25,500,000. Exact values live in tooltips.
The per-acquisition chance this position is drawn, expressed four ways. Derived from on-chain weight — never a prediction of a specific draw.
#15 of 48 by selection odds (heaviest weight = most likely).
#15 of 48 lightest backing — lighter backing carries more selection weight.
Under a static-pool assumption, the chance of being selected at least once grows with the number of draws.
P(selected within K acquisitions) rising against the survival curve (1 − p)^K
| Acquisitions (K) | P(selected within K) | Survival (not selected) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 21.93% | 78.07% |
| 25 | 46.14% | 53.86% |
| 50 | 70.99% | 29.01% |
| 100 | 91.58% | 8.42% |
| 500 | 100% | 0.0004% |
| 1,000 | 100% | <0.0001% |
These figures assume a static pool: a fixed per-draw probability and no change in total weight, deposits, or withdrawals. Real selection uses Chainlink VRF and the live pool composition — treat this as a model, never a guarantee.
Drag or type a hypothetical backing to recompute this position's weight, odds and crown distance. Nothing is sent on-chain.
The pool total weight is adjusted by swapping this position's weight (newTotal = totalWeight − oldWeight + newWeight); every other position is held constant.
Simulation only — a static-pool snapshot with all other positions unchanged. It does not predict Chainlink VRF outcomes and no transaction is created.
The Top Depositor holds the crown; taking it requires exceeding the heaviest active backing by the takeover threshold.
Synthetic reconstruction for the demo (deterministic Estimate) — it is not derived from indexed on-chain events. Once the indexer is wired, this becomes a real BackingIncreased/Decreased timeline.